- The Altcoin Season Index shows that altcoins are in an accumulation phase.
- 23% of altcoins could potentially lead the market rally, while others may follow.
Altcoin performance has been underwhelming of late, although a few assets have reached new all-time highs, including Solana [SOL] and Hyperliquid [HYPE].
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index was 29/100 at press time—signifying that, for now, these assets have attracted only limited liquidity, with Bitcoin [BTC] benefiting the most.
AMBCrypto’s analysis, however, reveals something more interesting: the factors behind a potential altseason, the current market stage, and historical comparisons.
Here’s what’s delaying the altseason
Per Alphractal, combining the Altcoin Season Index (blue line) and Bitcoin price (yellow line) on a weekly timeframe provides insight into why altcoins have yet to record major gains.
Source: Alphractal
One major finding is that altcoin seasons tend to begin when Bitcoin shows signs of weakness after a major rally—that’s when its price starts to range.
Similarly, altseason occurs when Bitcoin falls significantly or hits historical lows.
However, the first scenario tends to have a greater impact, with about 80% of altcoins surging. In the second scenario, altcoin rallies are typically minimal, or they simply don’t lose as much value as Bitcoin during a drop.
Now is the time to accumulate altcoins
The market is currently in a more defined accumulation zone.
According to the above chart, whenever the Altseason line drops into the green box—called Bitcoin Season—a major altcoin move tends to follow within a three-month period.
Altcoins tend to be highly volatile during this market phase, often rallying or declining more sharply, depending on Bitcoin’s movement.
Historically, since the 2022 altseason, rallies have begun in June, suggesting that another one could be on the horizon this year as well.
Source: Alphractal
Importantly, some altcoins have already begun this upward movement, with 23% of them outperforming Bitcoin over the past three months.
However, there’s a strong possibility that the upcoming altseason will remain minimal. Since 2019, the market has only recorded outsized gains once, in 2021.
Aside from that, altseason movements have been relatively muted.
Source: Alphractal
If this pattern repeats, the next altseason may also lack a major rally.
Altseason could be muted — unless liquidity shifts again
Liquidity inflows into the ecosystem could support a potential rally. In the first quarter of the year, $3.8 billion in funding entered the space.
This marked the highest level since mid-2022, although capital inflows have slowed in the second quarter.
Source: Alphractal
Notably, during a period of high capital inflow in 2019, the market experienced a significant altseason rally. A similar setup could play out again.
While the market largely remains on the sidelines, recent confluences suggest that conditions are aligning for an altseason to begin soon.
